Favored NFL teams on the cusp of historic win record, says Las Vegas bookmakers

Alex Parker

Posted Dec 31, 2024

NFL favorites are poised to break records this season, with a high winning percentage and potential historic outright wins.

Why it matters: The dominance of NFL favorites has significant implications for sportsbooks, bettors, and the overall landscape of football betting.

By the numbers:

  • NFL favorites have won 183 games outright this season, closing in on the all-time record of 188 set in 2005.
  • The favored team has won 71.8% of games so far, boasting the highest winning percentage for favorites since 2005 and the second-best since the adoption of the 16-game schedule in 1978.
  • December has been particularly favorable for favorites, with a 76.7% win rate, the second-highest for the month in the last 50 seasons.

Yes, but: While favorites have had an exceptional season, underdogs have still managed to pull off upsets earlier in the year.

  • Sportsbooks experienced a profitable start to the season as underdogs sprang 26 upsets in September.
  • However, the number of upsets decreased in the final months, favoring the favorites.

What to watch: The Kansas City Chiefs, two-time defending champions, find themselves as 10-point road underdogs against the Denver Broncos in Week 18.

  • It presents an opportunity for an underdog victory that could provide an exciting twist to the dominant narrative of favorites.

The bottom line: The success of NFL favorites this season has created challenges for sportsbooks and surprised seasoned traders.

  • Bettors backing favorites, especially in parlays, have benefitted greatly from their consistent victories.
  • As the regular season concludes, the performance of favorites will continue to shape the landscape of football betting.
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