NFL Power Rankings Week 1: Eagles, Ravens on top; Cowboys, Jets tumble
Hope is undefeated. Welcome to Week 1, where every team is tied for first, the margins are imaginary, and power rankings are equal parts scouting, spreadsheets, and shameless guesswork. The only hard math we’ve got says parity rules—literally: the AFC and NFC each have 16 teams within two games of a wild card, and all eight division races are separated by a single game. Translation: the board is clean, the takes are hot, and the truth hasn’t kicked off yet.
So, we’re weighing résumés and upside. Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs still cast the biggest shadow (two MVPs, three rings), while Lamar Jackson’s Ravens (two MVPs) and Christian McCaffrey’s 49ers (2023 Offensive Player of the Year) feel like the league’s tone-setters. Tyreek Hill’s Miami Dolphins bring track speed (1,799 receiving yards in 2023), Micah Parsons’ Cowboys can ruin Sundays on third-and-long, and T.J. Watt’s Steelers remain a weekly protection plan (19 sacks in 2023). That’s the fun—and the trap—of Week 1: we’re projecting on new play-callers, second-year leaps, and pass rushes that swear they’re “fixed.” In seven days, upsets will detonate half these assumptions; until then, let’s plant a flag and stack the league from 1 to 32.
16. New York Jets
Odds to win AFC: +28570
Year 1 of Aaron Glenn starts with a rebuild, not a revival.
They went 5–12 last year and enter 2025 with a 5.5 win total, which tells you where expectations sit. The defense slipped from chaos-maker to ordinary — 17 takeaways in 2024 after 27 in 2023 — even as Will McDonald logged 10.5 sacks. Justin Fields’ legs raise the floor, but preseason reviews peg a limited passing game, and the early slate leans defense-heavy (opening vs Pittsburgh, then Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore).
X-factor: If the reworked line (Olu Fashanu, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Armand Membou) creates a real run game for Breece Hall and keeps Fields on schedule, this could look different by Halloween.
15. Cleveland Browns
Odds to win AFC: +22220
Hard reset in progress, with Myles Garrett trying to keep scores sane while the offense finds a pulse.
Last year they finished dead last in points (258) and 32nd in both EPA/pass and EPA/rush; now it’s Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders and still no clear starter. Even a strong rush (3rd in pressure rate) couldn’t stop explosives on defense (30th vs deep passes, 31st vs explosive runs). The opening gauntlet—Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions—doesn’t help, and the market pegs them at 5.5 wins, favored in just one game.
Survive September, pick a QB, and patch the big plays, and the post–Week 6 stretch (fifth-easiest road slate) gives them a sliver.
14. Tennessee Titans
Odds to win AFC: +15380
The Ward era begins with guarded optimism; now the defense needs a partner.
They’re down here because last year was a disaster. 3-14 with 34 offensive turnovers (tied with Cleveland for most) turned a No. 2 yardage defense into 30th in points allowed. Year 2 for Brian Callahan brings Calvin Ridley and a sturdier line. But a rookie QB plus five road trips in the first eight weeks is a bumpy on-ramp. Jeffery Simmons and L’Jarius Sneed keep the teeth sharp. The offense just has to stop feeding short fields.
X-factor: How quickly Cam Ward processes — especially in a Week 1 altitude test — will decide whether they climb a tier or get buried early by the schedule.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Odds to win AFC: +11110
The reboot is intriguing, but it’s more foundation than finish.
Last year’s 4-13 gets adult supervision with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, plus Chip Kelly’s tempo to feed Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. That raises the floor, but the defense is Maxx Crosby and questions, and the market is cold: win total 6.5, underdogs in 13 games. The gauntlet is real—Mahomes twice, Bo Nix twice, plus Hurts, Prescott, Stroud and Caleb Williams—and they carry the league’s worst rest deficit (-19 days), even if an indoor-heavy late slate helps.
X-factor: How fast Kelly’s scheme clicks (and Crosby stays upright) determines whether they sniff nine wins or sit in the 6–7 range.
12. Miami Dolphins
Odds to win AFC: +8330
High-variance outfit: boom playmakers, bust protection.
They finished 8-9 with a 6-3 second half, but their 2024 line ranked 28th in pass-block win rate and 26th in run-block win rate (4.0 yards per carry), and they’re underdogs in 11 of 17 with five road games in the first eight plus a Spain trip — hard to shove higher. If Tua stays upright (19 TD in 11 games last year), the speed is still terrifying with Hill, Waddle and Achane, and the front could pop with Chubb, Phillips, Judon and a late-blooming Chop Robinson (45 pressures from Week 9 on). But the back-seven cohesion and protection still feel flimsy right now.
X-factor: Week 1 at Indy is a tone-setter, and how quickly James Daniels and rookie Jonah Savaiinaea stabilize the line will swing this season.
11. Indianapolis Colts
Odds to win AFC: +7410
Boom-or-bust vibes, with January in play if the QB stops being a storyline.
Lou Anarumo takes over a defense that finished 29th in yards allowed, and the roster around it is legit: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and last year they were the only team with three WRs over 800 yards. Daniel Jones is here to steady the operation, not save it, which is fine for a group sitting at a 7.5 win total. ESPN’s FPI ranges from 5–12 to 11–6, which is exactly why they land in the middle tier.
If Anarumo can nudge this D toward the middle and Jones protects the ball, that early Dolphins–Broncos swing will tell us whether this is a fringe wild card or another year of waiting.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds to win AFC: +5410
New staff, fresh weapons, and a quarterback who needs a clean runway.
The upside is obvious: Trevor Lawrence in Liam Coen’s offense with Travis Hunter as a matchup piece. But this ranking bakes in trust issues after 2024’s league-low nine takeaways and a 32nd-place pass-rush win rate, plus a 1–7 road mark. We’ll find out fast with Burrow, Purdy and Mahomes in the first five weeks.
X-factor: Can Anthony Campanile’s zone-heavy defense create turnovers and travel through all those West Coast flights, or does the same explosive-play leak (71 gains of 20+ allowed) resurface?
9. New England Patriots
Odds to win AFC: +4440
New coach bump, soft opening, and Year 2 Maye put them on the playoff fringe—for now.
They just went 4-13, but three of the first four are in Foxborough and their schedule projects as the league’s third-easiest. Vrabel + Josh McDaniels should raise the floor, and a defense that generated only 12 takeaways in 2024 has room to pop with Christian Gonzalez back. The catch: the line was bottom-two in pass- and run-block win rate last year, which caps Maye’s ceiling until proven otherwise.
If the front five stabilizes early (Raiders/Steelers/Panthers in three of the first four), this ranking will climb fast; if not, it’s another slog.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds to win AFC: +2220
They finally married a real QB to a real defense.
Rodgers, 41, should lift a passing game that managed just 46 TD throws over the last three seasons; even a modest bump turns 2024’s profile (9-2 when they reached 18 points) into steady Ws. With Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay on the outside and first-rounder Derrick Harmon up front, the defense reads top‑five on paper. The early runway helps, too: only one 2024 playoff opponent in the first six. That’s why they’re here—ceiling raised, but we’re waiting to see it against better defenses before pushing higher.
X-factor: Week 1 at the Jets and the Week 4 Dublin date vs. Minnesota will stress-test chemistry and Rodgers’ durability quickly; if he stays upright, the AFC North calculus changes.
7. Houston Texans
Odds to win AFC: +1920
The defense is playoff-ready; the offense is under renovation.
Back-to-back 10-7 seasons weren’t an accident, and last year’s D tied for fourth in sacks (49) while nabbing 19 of its 29 takeaways via interceptions. C.J. Stroud gets Nick Caley after taking 52 sacks and pressure on 28% of dropbacks; Nico Collins cleared 1,000 yards, and bigger targets should juice the red zone. They land here because the pass rush (Will Anderson + Danielle Hunter) travels, and a 13th-ranked strength of schedule isn’t prohibitive—but the offense needs proof.
X-factor How quickly the rebuilt line settles—and that Week 3 trip to Jacksonville—will set the ceiling.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Odds to win AFC: +1820 One-liner Built to bully on the ground and let Justin Herbert finish the job.
Why here Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh comes off an 11-6 season, and the identity is clear: Greg Roman’s run game setting up Herbert’s shot plays. The defense has to turn sacks into actual heat — they recorded 46 last year but still posted the fourth-lowest pressure rate — and that matters immediately with Patrick Mahomes waiting. Seven straight losses to Kansas City (last win: Dec. 16, 2021) frame the opener in Brazil, but Sports Illustrated pegs them 10-7 with a Wild Card, which tracks with the roster and schedule.
X-factor Week 1 in São Paulo is a tone-setter — snap the KC skid and the division feels live; lose again and you’re back in wild-card traffic.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Odds to win AFC: +1330 Healthy Burrow, loaded weapons, and a chance to start fast—finally.
They’ve gone 9–8 in back-to-back seasons and started 1–4 last year, but this attack still scares people with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and a rising Chase Brown. Trey Hendrickson steadies the edge, while Al Golden takes over a defense that must settle after turnover (Dax Hill off an ACL, Mike Hilton gone). In an AFC ruled by the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills, the elite-QB edge and a softer September keep them near the top—for now.
Week 1 in Cleveland is the tell: can the line handle Myles Garrett and keep Burrow clean, or are we replaying last September?
4. Denver Broncos
Odds to win AFC: +1330 The defense already looks like January; Nix decides how high the ceiling goes.
They finished No. 1 in EPA/play allowed and No. 1 vs the pass last year, then layered on Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. All five O-line starters return after ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, and Bo Nix’s legs (430 rush yards) plus Courtland Sutton and newcomer Evan Engram give Sean Payton more ways to win on schedule. You can argue this is aggressive, but pairing an elite D with line continuity nudges them ahead of similar AFC hopefuls—now go prove it against Mahomes and Burrow.
X-factor: Early red-zone answers and that Week 4 MNF vs Cincinnati will tell us if “good” turns “contender.”
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Odds to win AFC: +540 Still the standard, just not the scariest version right now.
Last year’s 15–2 masked thin margins — 11–0 in one-score games — while the offense finished dead last in explosive play rate and 15+ yard throws, and a 53.8% red-zone TD rate was their lowest under Andy Reid. Rashee Rice’s six-game ban pushes more on Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown and rookie burner Xavier Worthy to start, while a new left side (Jaylon Moore/Josh Simmons) tries to stabilize protection; on defense, late-season run leakage (4.6 YPC allowed over the final eight) needs patching. The context still tilts their way: a neutral-field opener vs. the Chargers in Brazil, favored in 16 of 17 look-aheads, and only +2.5 dogs at Buffalo in Week 9.
X-factor: Can they trade the behind-the-line diet and third-down heroics for true early-down explosives — particularly via Worthy’s speed — to turn “efficient” back into “inevitable”?
2. Baltimore Ravens
Odds to win AFC: +490 Same superstar at the controls, better corners on the back end, and a chip the size of January.
Last year’s attack was bonkers—over 30 points a game, 5.8 yards per carry and a 74% red-zone rate—with Lamar putting up a 41-4 TD-INT and 8.8 YPA plus 915 rushing yards. They fortified coverage with Jaire Alexander next to Kyle Hamilton, aiming to help a pass rush that had to manufacture pressure too often. The placement is lofty, sure, but the résumé plus continuity under Todd Monken—and a 104-42 home mark since 2008—earns it.
We’ll learn fast: Bills, Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Texans and Rams before a Week 7 bye, while Jackson must solve the man blitz (53% of his playoff dropbacks) and a 23-24 mark in one-score games—with rookie K Tyler Loop in those moments.
1. Buffalo Bills
Odds to win AFC: +440 Reigning MVP under center, top projected offense, and favored in all 17 games.
ESPN projects 481 points — most in the league — and it fits the arc from 2024. Josh Allen’s menu is deeper and more varied, and the line keeps him clean (fewest sacks allowed each of the past two seasons). For anyone screaming “Ravens,” fair — they open with Baltimore — but Buffalo still profiles as the steadier down-to-down machine.
X-factor: Turnover discipline and Joe Brady’s late-game sequencing in one-score spots will determine whether this is a 14-win march or another Arrowhead gut punch.