Chris Olave is Being Overdrafted

Chris Olave is one of the best route runners in the NFL. That hasn't changed.

What has changed is his target share.

Olave finished 5th in the NFL in targets last year with 156. That elite volume was the engine behind his fantasy production. He was a PPR monster because the Saints simply didn't have another reliable pass-catcher.

Now they do.

The Saints took Jordyn Tyson at pick 8. Tyson might be the best WR in this draft class. His 2.37 yards per route run and 86% success rate vs. zone coverage are among the best in the class. He's the perfect complement to Olave, who is one of the best man-coverage beaters in the league.

Perfect complement for the real team. Bad news for Olave's fantasy managers.

Here's the math: Olave's 156 targets were partially a function of necessity. The Saints had no other credible receiving option. With Tyson in the mix, Olave is looking at 20–30 fewer targets this season.

That drops him from "borderline WR1" to "solid WR2 with a capped ceiling."

He's still a good player. He's still going to have big weeks. But his ADP is priced at the WR1 he was last year, not the WR2 he'll be this year.

The consensus hasn't caught up to the new target distribution yet. If you can sell Olave at his current price in dynasty, do it. If you're drafting redraft, let someone else pay the premium.

– Alex